Guía de negociación del riesgo geopolítico: Gestión del riesgo durante las crisis geopolíticas
lunes 02 marzo 2026
Could Restrictions Hurt Oil Prices Despite Suez Blockage?
Renewed travel restrictions throughout Europe may dampen demand for Oil despite possible shortages due to the continued blockage of the Suez canal. Brent Oil (EB) was trading at almost $64 a barrel and Crude Oil (CL) was trading above $60 a barrel on Thursday morning.
Several European countries, including Germany, France and Italy, have extended or reinstated travel restrictions on Tuesday following a report by the World Health Organization that the number of global cases of COVID-19 is on the rise. The lockdowns have fueled concerns of a potential demand drop for Oil. Europe accounts for about 15% of global consumption of the commodity, and typically experiences a surge in demand for jet fuel during the summer months. Any extended period of lower demand has the potential to decrease oil prices.
Additionally, epidemiological reports point to upticks in COVID-19 infection rates in India, one of the developing economies which could potentially support sustainable growth for Oil demand. On Wednesday, India reported its highest daily numbers this year for both new coronavirus infections and mortalities.
OPEC+ is already facing the possibility of lower sales in India, the world’s third-largest Oil importer, as the subcontinent looks outside the Middle East to Oil producers such as the U.S. and Guyana. This may be one reason why OPEC+ is expected to carry over Oil production curbs until at least May.
Suez Oil Backlog May Support Oil Prices
On the other side of the Oil price equation, the Suez canal remains blocked as efforts to remove a grounded container ship failed on Wednesday. About one million barrels of Oil move through the Suez canal on a typical day. While there were ten Oil tankers affected by the blockage on Wednesday morning, many analysts believe that any impact on Oil prices due to the incident may be temporary, since there are currently high stockpiles of Oil worldwide.
Oil demand is likely to be affected by decreased travel in Europe and around the world, as well as by the blocked shipping lanes in the Suez Canal. However, it remains to be seen how prices will respond going forward.
