3 August Week Ahead: Oil's Reversal, Yen Intervention & US Payrolls

West Texas Intermediate futures for September delivery fell nearly 6.17% to $79.45 a barrel in Asian trading on Monday, 3 August 2026, after President Donald Trump said he had called off a planned strike on Iran, while Brent futures for October delivery fell 5.13% to $83.26 a barrel.

Japan's Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury confirmed their first joint yen-buying intervention since 1998, and their first coordinated action of any kind since 2011.

Neither move appeared on any economic calendar. Five US labour readings do, ending with Friday's July employment report.

TL;DR

• WTI fell nearly 6.17% to $79.45 and Brent fell 5.13% to $83.26 on Monday after a pause in US strikes on Iran.

• The Strait of Hormuz has been impassable since 8 July 2026, so the physical constraint has not changed.

• USD/JPY traded around 156 after joint intervention, down about 4.40% over seven days.

• Friday's (7 August) July non-farm payrolls report at 12:30 GMT is the week's largest scheduled event, with three Federal Reserve speakers from Wednesday.

Both moves share a structure. A price shifted sharply on an official statement rather than on a verified change in supply or policy, and the confirming evidence is still pending.

Oil's Round Trip

Trump said early Sunday he had called off the strike after a request from Tehran and other countries in the region, adding in a Truth Social post that "the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to". Supply policy moved the same way: OPEC+ agreed in principle on Sunday 2 August, completing the unwinding of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cut layer agreed in 2023.

Oil gave back much of its geopolitical premium in response. Crude had gained more than 9% in the week to 24 July, with Brent trading as high as $102, then surrendered those gains across the following two sessions before a 7.9% rebound on Wednesday as strike threats resumed. WTI settled at $84.67 on Friday, 31 July 2026, up 1.29%, with the expiring September Brent contract at $90.12, up 1.22%. Monday's percentage falls are measured against the October contract. (Source: Bloomberg)

A Closed Strait & A Falling Price

The physical position has not matched the price. The Strait of Hormuz has been impassable since fighting resumed on 8 July 2026, and tanker routing and shipping insurance decisions do not reset on a headline. Industry reporting on 31 July noted that Hormuz ship counts had kept crude futures bid despite soft demand indicators.

Energy prices in a conflict zone feed into the inflation debate, which makes a move of this size a macro story. Gold traded Monday between $4,042.67 and $4,083.77 an ounce, easing from Friday's levels.

Japan & the US Intervene Together

The second unscheduled move came in currency markets. Japan's Ministry of Finance confirmed coordinated yen-buying intervention with the United States and said it would not hesitate to act again. 

The action was signalled rather than concealed. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly argued the yen had overshot fair value, and a Reuters photograph taken during a Cabinet meeting appeared to capture notes about yen purchases on his notepad.

USD/JPY closed Friday at 157.40 against a prior close of 159.54, a fall of 2.14 yen or about 1.34%. It traded at 156.51 on Monday, having fallen as low as 155, while the Nikkei 225 fell 1.09 % to 63,659.44.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held at 1% on 31 July on an 8-1 vote, with Hajime Takata dissenting in favour of an immediate increase to 1.25%, and warned core inflation could run clearly above 2% from the second half of its fiscal year. Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled an increase could come as soon as September.

What to Monitor This Week

• Monday, 3 August at 14:00 GMT: ISM Manufacturing PMI, previous 53.3, with the Prices sub-index.

• Tuesday, 4 August at 14:00 GMT: JOLTS job openings and factory orders.

• Wednesday, 5 August at 12:15 GMT: ADP private-sector employment, previous 98,000.

• Wednesday, 5 August at 14:00 GMT: ISM Services PMI

• Wednesday, 5 August at 14:30 GMT: EIA crude inventories. Also Wednesday: the US Treasury quarterly refunding at 12:30

• Thursday, 6 August at 12:30 GMT: Jobless claims, preliminary productivity and unit labour costs. Alberto Musalem of the St Louis Fed at 21:30.

• Friday, 7 August at 12:30 GMT: July non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, with Canadian jobs in the same minute for USD/CAD. Thomas Barkin of the Richmond Fed at 14:00.

More Context 

June's nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000, while the unemployment rate held at 4.2% and average hourly earnings rose 0.3%. The figures arrive against the backdrop of a divided Federal Reserve. 

On 29 July, the Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan favouring a 25-basis-point rate hike. 

By 31 July, the 10-year US Treasury yield had closed at 4.75%, while both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 ended the week in positive territory. Attention now shifts to another busy week of corporate earnings, with Palantir reporting on Monday, AMD and SpaceX's first earnings release as a public company on Tuesday, and Eli Lilly on Wednesday. (Source: CNBC)

Conclusion  

Two prices moved sharply on official statements rather than on verified changes in supply or policy. This week brings the scheduled counterweight: five labour readings, two ISM prints, a Treasury refunding and three Fed speakers, ending with Friday's employment report. Whether the reversals hold may depend more on those releases than on the weekend headlines. 

*Past performance does not guarantee future results. The above is for marketing and general informational purposes only, and these are only projections and should not be taken as investment research, investment advice or a personal recommendation.