27 July Week Ahead: Big Tech Earnings Meet the Warsh Fed

Four of the largest US companies and the UK-based chip designer Arm report inside 48 hours this week, on either side of a rate decision from the Warsh-era Federal Reserve. 

Microsoft, Meta and Arm are scheduled to report earnings after Wednesday's close on 29 July, the same afternoon the Fed decides, while Apple and Amazon follow after Thursday's close, hours after the first estimate of second-quarter GDP. They arrive after a second straight weekly loss for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, and as oil falls sharply on signs of Gulf de-escalation.

TL;DR

• Microsoft, Meta and Arm report after the US close on Wednesday, 29 July; Apple and Amazon after Thursday's close, 30 July.

• The Fed decides Wednesday at 2:00pm ET, Warsh's second meeting as chair, with another hold at 3.50% to 3.75% widely expected.

• Advance second-quarter GDP lands Thursday at 8:30am ET, with June PCE later in the week.

• The S&P 500 closed Friday, 24 July, at 7,411.98 and the Nasdaq Composite at 24,975.82, both lower for a second week.

• Brent oil fell as much as 7.4% on Monday, 27 July, briefly below $90 before trading near $92, after the US paused strikes on Iran and Tehran held Hormuz talks with Oman. Gold rose to around $4,090 an ounce on Monday, holding above $4,000 even as oil retreated 

The reports close out a difficult stretch for the technology trade. The Nasdaq Composite fell about 2% last week and all three main US indices finished lower, a second consecutive weekly loss driven by worries over big tech's AI spending. The Magnificent Seven shed close to $800 billion in market value on Thursday alone, and Intel fell almost 8% last Friday despite beating expectations, which may suggest the reaction this week may hinge on capital spending rather than on the headline numbers.

A Warsh-Era Fed Decides the Same Afternoon

The Fed announces its decision on Wednesday, 29 July at 2:00pm ET (10:00 pm GST), Kevin Warsh's second meeting as the new Fed chair. At his June debut the Fed held rates and half the committee projected a rise before year-end, and another hold at 3.50% to 3.75% is widely expected this week. Pricing puts the probability of no change at about 65% ahead of the meeting, while the odds of a rise by September have climbed to roughly 82%, so the September path may matter more to traders than Wednesday itself. (Source: CNBC)

With no new projections due, the statement wording and Warsh's tone on inflation may matter more than the decision itself, after he reshaped the statement's language in June. Tariffs are now a live input rather than a pending deadline. The Section 122 baseline expired on 24 July and was replaced the same day by a two-tier Section 301 regime of 10% to 12.5% covering around 60 economies, so traders may look for any read on how that is feeding into prices. 

Wednesday's Reports: Microsoft, Meta & Arm

Microsoft Earnings Expectations

Microsoft reports fiscal fourth-quarter results, having guided revenue to between $86.7 and $87.8 billion, with consensus earnings of about $4.24 per share. The focus is cloud and capital spending: Intelligent Cloud revenue rose about 30% to $34.7 billion last quarter, and Microsoft has guided roughly $190 billion of calendar 2026 capital expenditure, so markets may watch whether Azure growth supports the outlay.

Meta Earnings Expectations 

Meta reports second-quarter results, its financial year running to the calendar, with expected revenue of about $60.17 billion, up 26.6% from a year earlier, and earnings near $7.13 per share  The question may be spending rather than sales: the company has raised its calendar 2026 AI capital expenditure plan to $125 billion to $145 billion, and traders may focus on returns.

Arm Earnings Expectations 

Arm reports fiscal first-quarter results, with consensus revenue of about $1.26 billion, up from $1.05 billion a year earlier, and earnings near $0.40 per share. Expectations are elevated, with Arm shares up about 158% so far this year, so AI and data-centre royalty demand may be weighed against a softer smartphone market.

Thursday's Reports: Apple & Amazon

Apple Earnings Expectations 

Apple reports fiscal third-quarter results after Thursday's close, with consensus revenue of about $108.79 billion, up 15.7%, and earnings of about $1.88 per share, up 19.8%. Apple has beaten expectations in each of the past four quarters, with focus on Services, iPhone demand and tariff commentary.

Amazon Earnings Expectations 

Amazon also reports on a calendar year, with second-quarter revenue expected at about $195.97 billion, up 16.8%, and earnings near $1.81 per share. Company guidance is $194 billion to $199 billion in sales. As with Microsoft, the reaction may hinge on whether AWS growth and margins support heavy AI spending, and the report lands the same day as the first GDP estimate.

Oil Slides as the Gulf Signals De-escalation 

Ahead of the busy earnings calendar, the energy backdrop has turned sharply. Brent crude fell as much as 7.4% on Monday morning, dipping below $90 before trading near $92, down from Friday's $96.78 settlement, after the US paused its near two-week run of strikes on Iran and Tehran held talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz. The retreat is not one-directional. Brent is still up roughly a quarter over the past month, and Houthi forces claimed weekend attacks on Saudi targets, so Gulf supply risk remains live. 

The transmission runs well beyond the US. Brent is the global benchmark, so a move from $96 to $92 shifts the inflation arithmetic for importers across Europe and Asia as much as it shifts revenue for exporters in the Gulf and elsewhere. On the rate side, economies that peg or closely track the dollar import Fed policy more or less directly, which makes the roughly 82% probability now attached to a September rise a borrowing-cost question well outside Wall Street. The European Central Bank held rates on Thursday while leaving the door open to a September increase, so the two largest central banks may end up leaning the same way. 

On the flip side, gold prices moved the other way. Bullion rose about 1% to around $4,090 an ounce on Monday, holding above $4,000 despite firmer rate expectations, which suggests safe-haven demand is still doing some work even as the conflict premium in oil unwinds.

Conclusion  

This week's market focus extends well beyond earnings beats and misses. 

With five major technology companies reporting around the Fed's rate decision, investors are likely to weigh AI investment, cloud demand, and management outlooks against the evolving interest-rate and inflation backdrop. 

Combined with GDP data and easing oil prices, the next 48 hours could shape expectations for both corporate earnings and monetary policy heading into the second half of the year.

*Past performance does not guarantee future results. The above is for marketing and general informational purposes only, and these are only projections and should not be taken as investment research, investment advice or a personal recommendation.