13 July 2026 Week Ahead: Earnings, CPI & US-Iran Tensions

Second-quarter earnings season opens with three heavyweight sessions this week. The week also brings June CPI and PPI, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony on 14 and 15 July, and a renewed standoff over the Strait of Hormuz that pushed oil higher into the weekend.

TL;DR

• Q2 earnings season opens this week with key releases fromJPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Netflix, ASML, and TSMC among others.

• June CPI is due Tuesday and June PPI Wednesday, both 08:30 ET, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony on 14 and 15 July.

• US and Iranian forces exchanged strikes for a third weekend; US Central Command cited more than 300 targets over three nights and Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed.

• WTI rose about 4% to above $74 a barrel early Monday, 13 July; the S&P 500 closed Friday, 10 July, near a record at 7,575.39.

Cross-Asset Snapshot 

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,575.39, up 0.42% on the day and about 1% on the week, within roughly 40 points of its early-June record, with the Nasdaq Composite at 26,281.61 and the VIX Volatility Index at a low 15.03. Leadership has stayed concentrated in AI-linked names, so a cautious tone from ASML or TSMC could weigh more widely, while a confident one could extend the theme. (Source: CNBC)

The Bank Slate on Tuesday

JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup all report before Tuesday's US open 14 July. With the 10-year Treasury yield around 4.56%, its highest since May, and the FOMC at 3.50% to 3.75% while nine officials signal a possible rate rise by year-end, remarks on deposit costs and credit quality carry weight.  

Chips and the AI Capex Read

Wednesday, 15 July, brings Morgan Stanley and BlackRock alongside ASML, with TSMC on Thursday, 16 July. ASML, which makes the lithography systems chipmakers depend on, is treated as a proxy for the semiconductor cycle, with net bookings watched as an early demand signal and 2026 net sales guided to EUR 36bn to EUR 40bn. Moreover, TSMC, which makes processors for Nvidia, Apple, AMD and Broadcom, is widely seen as the single most important read on AI chip demand; it has guided second-quarter revenue to $39.0bn to $40.2bn at a 65.5% to 67.5% gross margin and plans to spend towards the high end of a $52bn to $56bn capital-expenditure range for 2026.

Managed Care and the Media Tier on Thursday

UnitedHealth reports Thursday, 16 July before the open, with the medical care ratio, cost trends, guidance and the UnitedHealthcare and Optum divisions in focus. The shares have recovered through 2026 after a stretch tied to rising Medicare Advantage costs, with the first-quarter medical care ratio improving to 83.9%. Elevance Health, also reporting this week, expects 2026 earnings to fall, which can shape managed-care sentiment ahead of UnitedHealth. Another key report this week is Netflix’s earnings, scheduled for Thursday, 16 July. The streaming giant’s revenue growth, operating margin and the advertising tier are the focus, with engagement now emphasised over subscriber counts. Netflix has kept a 2026 revenue outlook of $50.7bn to $51.7bn and an operating-margin target near 31.5%.

US CPI, PPI and the Warsh Testimony

June CPI is scheduled for Tuesday, 14 July, while the June PPI, is scheduled for Wednesday, 15 July. both The most recent reading, May CPI, rose 0.5% on the month and 4.2% over the year. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, in office since 22 May 2026, gives his first semiannual testimony to the House on 14 July and the Senate on 15 July, with CPI landing roughly 90 minutes before the House hearing. The FOMC held at 3.50% to 3.75% in June, with nine officials signalling a possible rate increase by year-end, and money markets priced about a two-thirds chance of a September rate rise, firming after the escalation. June CPI and the June PCE reading may be  the main inputs before the FOMC meeting later this month.

The Hormuz Backdrop and Cross-Asset Transmission

US and Iranian forces exchanged strikes for a third consecutive weekend, days after US President Donald Trump described the interim ceasefire as over on 08 July. 

US Central Command said it struck about 140 targets overnight into Sunday and more than 300 across three nights, plus a further round on Sunday evening, to degrade Iran's ability to attack vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz; the exchange began after Iran fired on a Cyprus-flagged container ship. 

Iran said it returned fire towards Jordan and several Gulf states and the UAE and Qatar reported intercepting incoming missiles. Iran declared the strait closed until further notice, which US Central Command rejected, saying transits continue. 

Meanwhile, diplomacy runs in parallel, with Qatar-hosted talks and Pakistani mediation while the UN Secretary-General warned that a return to full-scale hostilities would have catastrophic consequences. 

Roughly a fifth to a quarter of the world's seaborne oil normally transits the strait, of direct relevance for a GCC audience. 

The market response has been uneven. WTI crude rose about 4% to above $74 a barrel early Monday, 13 July, having settled around $71.41 last Friday, with Brent near $79 and oil up about 5% last week. Gold eased to near $4,060 an ounce on Monday, down about 1.4%, as higher energy prices revived inflation and rate-rise expectations and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates weighed on the non-yielding metal. The US dollar index firmed and the yen held near multi-decade lows, while Asian equities opened mostly lower and US equity futures pointed lower early Monday.

Conclusion

The week concentrates a great deal into a short span: the opening of Q2 earnings season across banks, chips, managed care and media, two US inflation prints, the new Fed Chair's first testimony, and a live conflict affecting a critical oil chokepoint. Single-name results can produce large moves and, given concentrated leadership, can spill into the broader market, while the data and geopolitical headlines may move rates, the dollar, oil and gold together.

*Past performance does not guarantee future results. The above is for marketing and general informational purposes only, and are only projections and should not be taken as investment research, investment advice or a personal recommendation.